Friday, May 23, 2025

Fair Play: Prenuptial Agreements for Political Alliances for 2025 General Elections in Malawi

Giboh Pearson, a contemporary Malawian musician came to the limelight when he released his hit “Izathera ma penalty”, that can literally be translated that “It will end with penalties”. Here he presumably referred to a sports match such as football that ends in a draw during the regular game time and goes into post-match penalties in order to determine the winner. Ordinarily, the best time to win a match is during the regular game time. Actually, no team whether the weaker one or the stronger one of the two (competitors), would want the match to go into post-match penalties because no one is guaranteed a win. Post-match penalties are kind of painful to the losing side, especially if the loser happens to be the one that was superior during the in-match performance. If it is not post-match penalties, the other and more painful way of breaking the tie is the golden goal where extra time is added and at any time one of the two teams scores the match is ended.

Giboh here is applying an analogy of the post-match penalties to the events that ensue when there is unceremonious breakup of a sweet romantic relationship between two adult people, either in marriage or otherwise. In his lyrics, Giboh is warning his or her romantic partner-to-be that he or she will not just use-and-dump him or her, without facing consequences.

Awiri sangayende asanapangane”, meaning that two people cannot start off on a journey without a prior agreement ... about where they are going and for what purpose, what mode of transport they will use, what time they will start off and return, who pays for transport, etc. In between the lines, he is talking that a heartbreak is so painful that he or she will not let his or her partner go unpunished should he or she do so.

Ukazangoti wandisiya, ndizakupondetsa kasipa”, meaning if his or her partner will dare dump him or her, he or she will bewitch him or her. In totality, Giboh is asking beforehand his or her partner-to-be to either commit to the relationship for good or not to start the relationship at all, if he or she will not afford to commit for good.

Talking of romance, the Malawian politics of post-1993 are characterised by short-term romanticism, as such Giboh Pearson’s advice comes handy. But first of all, let me explain what I mean by politics before I encourage politicians to get free advice from this song as we head towards the electioneering season in the runup to the 16th of September 2025 General Elections?

In this brief writeup, I define politics as all activities of cooperation, conflict, and negotiation in decisions about distribution of burdens and benefits among members of a given society. This means that politics is an essential and unavoidable platform in all human societies. As a platform, politics is governed by rules or political institutions that can be broadly classified into; who rules (electoral institutions) – these are rules, procedures and processes that govern how power is earned and distributed, and authorize its use in particular ways; and how he/she rules (accountability institutions) – these are rules, procedures and norms that govern how power and authority is exercised. That is, rules and procedures governing policy decision making process. How well established, popularly accepted and agreed these political institutions are in a particular society, determines the level of political stability of that society.

In Malawi, as is the case in most low-income countries, because of an underdeveloped formal productive economy that would produce more public resources (through taxes, jobs, etc) and allow the for allocation of resources through more formal mechanisms (such as child grants, universal coverage of child grants, old age support, unemployment benefits, etc), clientelist politics takes centre stage. As tax revenues are insufficient for formal redistribution, politicians rely on selective and informal redistribution mechanisms to survive. In this sense, clientelism is in the eyes of politicians, a rational mode of politics, given the need to ensure stability and viability of their (ruling) party.

How have Malawian ruling elites worked with insufficient public resources?

Kamuzu Banda’s Malawi Congress Party (MCP) faced almost non-existent opposition, courtesy of abolition of multiparty politics in early 1970s, that partially insulated his rule from opposition threats. As such, Banda did not need to disburse public resources to private individuals formally or informally to secure stability of his ruling MCP. The Banda’s MCP considered itself secure enough to develop a longer-term vision for the nation and comfortably allocated the required resources for the same. Indeed, Malawi did much better than most countries in the region in terms of public institutions and infrastructural development during the almost 3 decades of Banda’s MCP rule.

At the reintroduction of multiparty electoral politics following the 1993 national referendum, the opposition threat to the ruling parties’ stability kicked in. All post-1993 ruling parties starting with the Bakili Muluzi’s United Democratic Front (UDF), Bingu wa Mutharika’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Joyce Banda’s People’s Party (PP), Arthur Peter Mutharika’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and Lazarus Chakwera’s Malawi Congress Party (MCP), faced threat of opposition. As such, in order to survive these parties, have in one way or another, been disbursing public resources to private individuals, mostly informally, to secure stability of their being in power. Courtesy of simple majority electoral rule, these parties enclaved and massively supported a narrow regional area that ensured that, at minimum, an electoral win. Using the simple majority, any electoral region with about 30 percent plus of the voters, can dominate. No wonder the UDF-cum-DPP, courtesy of simple majority electoral rule dominated for almost three decades since change to multiparty electoral politics in 1993. As simple majority tended to weaken opposition threat to their ruling, the dominant parties also tended to grow politically arrogant as they would consider themselves untouchables.

The voter domination being the broader characteristic of the post-1993 ruling parties in Malawi, however, in between them they faced differing levels of opposition threats to their ruling. Due to existing threat of the Kamuzu Banda’s MCP, Bakili Muluzi quickly rounded up key MCP leaders including Kamuzu himself with house arrests to lessen the force of opposition threat. He also focused on privatization of state-owned properties in order to raise funds for redistribution, mostly informally, to individuals including key persons in the opposition parties with a goal of remaining in power. Formal accountability institutions such as the Ombudsman, Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Malawi Human Rights Commission, were put in place, but merely for ticking the boxes with the donors, and not for the service of Malawians. The decade of UDF rule was often referred to as a “lost decade” by the people on the streets.

The political legitimacy of Bakili’s UDF was lowest during his second term, made complex by his failed attempt for open term and third term bid. On his retirement, his anointed successor and UDF candidate for the 2004 General Elections, Bingu wa Mutharika faced a hard time. His marginal win of about 30 percent of the counted votes was a testament to the weak legitimacy for a ruling party. In simple arithmetic terms, this election results indicated that about 70 percent of the population did not approve Bingu as their leader. This was a toll order in terms of opposition threat to his ruling.

His direct condemnation and denouncement of his own party (UDF) right at his inauguration seemed to have rescued him from his imminent collapse from power. Even though the official parliamentary opposition was expected to soar with his ditching of UDF to form a new Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the actual situation played out differently. Actually, the political pattern changed: the ruling 30 percent became the minority opposition, and the opposition 70 percent took over as the ruling. This boosted Bingu’s legitimacy with one musician calling him (Bingu) “Mose wa lero” meaning modern day version of the biblical Moses who rescued Israelites from Egypt. Indeed, Bingu easily sailed through to the second term with about 70 percent of the total votes counted at the 2009 General Elections. His sense of relative low opposition threat, coupled with funding from the debt relief of highly indebted poor countries (HIPC funds), enabled him to focus on both short-term but formal disbursements (agricultural subsidies) and longer-term projects such as the Nsanje Inland Port.

Unfortunately, in his second term, he and the successors that came after him, went back to the narrow regionalistic politics full of inform clientelistic disbursements of public resources to individuals. This reversal, brew utter resentments from the Malawians who, in turn, voted out Joyce Banda’s People’s Party (PP) in their debut electoral attempt in 2014 and Arthur People Mutharika’s DPP in its re-election attempt in 2019/2020.

With the Constitutional Court re-defining electoral majority as 50% + 1 vote. The Malawian political landscape has changed. The regional enclaves that anchored the parties in the past have significantly been disempowered. The 50% + 1 vote means that any party looking forward to winning a presidential election needs to embrace coalitions and alliances with parties dominant in other regions.

What free advice does Giboh Pearson give to parties as they gear up for 2025 elections?

Giboh Pearson is giving free advice to the about-to-be couple parties that are about to enter into political coalitions and alliances that for fair play, they should carefully do their prenuptial agreements. Like in romantic relationships, he is warning that those alliances have potential not end up well, may end up in penalties. I want to extend that the dissolution may actually be by a golden goal, where if one partner scores that is the end of the game.

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