Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Why I am not impressed with GDP as a measure of an economy

First, an economy (from Greek οίκος – "household" and νέμoμαι – "manage") means careful management of available resources. GDP refers to the total economic output achieved by a country over a period of time, in most cases, one year. As such, GDP is generally a good indicator of a country's economic output, while GDP growth rate of economic productivity, and not net wealth of a country nor well-being of its people.

Second, GDP often understates economic output for developing countries with substantial share of non-market production (goods and services that are produced either for personal consumption or for which exist no official record of production). We all well know, what a huge proportion of Malawians engage in growing own food, drawing water from own well, fetching firewood from a nearby forest, catching fish from a river or lake, building houses with non-purchased local materials, walk mostly as a means of transport, use family labour in the house and farms, etc. The GDP of all these people is considered zero. Whereas, in more commercialized economies, GDP often soars.

Third, GDP often understates economic output for developing countries with substantial share of underground business transactions that are not formally recorded for trade that is regarded ‘illegal’ eg informal mining, informal employment, businesses in cross-border smuggling, unregistered businesses of local foods, beers, prostitution, etc.

Fourth, GDP often understates economic output for developing countries with substantial share of natural capital (unexploited minerals, land, water, forests, fisheries, weather) which makes up a significant share (36%) of their total wealth, yet their full contribution does not show up in GDP. Forestry, for example, timber resources are counted in GDP but the other services of forests, like carbon sequestration and air filtration are ignored.
Fifth, GDP overlooks the depletion of national wealth and assets. Long‐term development is about accumulation and sound management of national wealth and assets for economic output (GDP) and well-being. Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz once noted, a private company is judged by both its income and balance sheet, but most countries only compile an income statement (GDP) and know very little about the national balance sheet. GDP looks at only one part of economic performance—income—but says nothing about wealth and assets that underlie this income. For example, when a country exploits its minerals for export, its GDP rises, but it is actually depleting its wealth. The same holds true for over‐exploiting fisheries or degrading land and water resources. These declining assets are invisible in GDP and so, are not measured. Therefore, GDP does give misleading signals about the economic performance and people's well‐being for developing countries.